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Pre-Markets Rebound After Selloff; PCE & Q2 Numbers Everywhere
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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for June are out this morning, coming in higher on the headline: +0.2% versus +0.1% estimated. Essentially this is the wrong direction if we want to see inflation metrics continue to tick down, but we’re well off the +1.0% highs from June a year ago, so we do see real progress here. Core PCE month over month matched the +0.2% expected, far from the frighteningly high +6.3% we saw back in April of 2021.
The Fed more often cites PCE data than any other inflation report, and within it the most quoted segment is the year-over-year headline and core. Here we see a +3.0% on headline, down a full 80 basis points (bps) from the May print, the lowest we’ve seen since March 2021. The high read on this metric was +7.0% in June of last year. Core PCE year over year — stripping out volatile food and energy costs — came in at +4.1%, a mere 10 bps below expectations, but still the lowest print since September 2021 and down half a point from the unrevised +4.6% posted the previous month.
Nominal Personal Income reached +0.3% for June, down 10 bps from estimates and 20 bps from the upwardly revised May number. Nominal Personal Spending for June was in line with expectations at +0.5%, up 30 bps from an upwardly revised +0.2% previously. Real Spending was up +0.4% — above the revised +0.1% a month earlier but well below January 2023’s +1.3%. And the Employment Cost Index for Q2 was also a tad below projections to +1.0%, and down -20 bps from the unrevised May print. February of this year brought us +1.4%, the highest of the cycle. All of these figures depict a continually cooling economy overall.
The biggest of the integrated oil & gas “supermajors,” ExxonMobil (XOM - Free Report) , reported mixed Q2 numbers this morning, missing on the bottom line by 6 cents per share to $1.94 (and well off the year-ago pace of $4.14 per share), while outperforming estimates on the top line to $82.91 billion by +5.16%. Compared to 2022, when Q2 revenues came in at a jaw-dropping $115.68 billion, we see the results of the pullback in energy costs big time with these numbers. For more on XOM’s earnings, click here.
Competing supermajor Chevron (CVX - Free Report) also released mixed results for its Q2 report ahead of today’s bell, but in reverse from Exxon’s: earnings of $3.08 per share beat the Zacks consensus by +4.4% (though well off last year’s Q2 earnings of $5.82 per share), while revenues of $48.9 billion was beneath expectations by -4.9%. Both Chevron and Exxon shares are down marginally on the news, adding to their year-to-date losses of -11.1% and -4.4%, respectively. For more on CVX’s earnings, click here.
Procter & Gamble (PG - Free Report) beat on both top and bottom lines for its fiscal Q4 quarter this Friday, with earnings of $1.37 per share outpacing the Zacks consensus by 5 cents (and easily above the $1.21 per share in the year-ago quarter) for its fourth-straight quarterly earnings beat, on sales of $20.55 billion, bettering expectations by +2.66%. Shares are up +1.3% in today’s pre-market trading, adding to the marginal +0.4% P&G has earned year to date. For more on PG’s earnings, click here.
From the same household product segment, Colgate-Palmolive (CL - Free Report) managed only its second earnings beat in the past four quarters, with earnings of 77 cents per share presenting a 2-cent beat. Its top line also came in ahead of expectations, $4.82 billion, which surpassed the Zacks consensus by +3.23% and bettered the $4.48 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. Shares are trading down -1.6% on the news at this hour, adding to its -2% loss year to date. For more on CL’s earnings, click here.
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Pre-Markets Rebound After Selloff; PCE & Q2 Numbers Everywhere
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for June are out this morning, coming in higher on the headline: +0.2% versus +0.1% estimated. Essentially this is the wrong direction if we want to see inflation metrics continue to tick down, but we’re well off the +1.0% highs from June a year ago, so we do see real progress here. Core PCE month over month matched the +0.2% expected, far from the frighteningly high +6.3% we saw back in April of 2021.
The Fed more often cites PCE data than any other inflation report, and within it the most quoted segment is the year-over-year headline and core. Here we see a +3.0% on headline, down a full 80 basis points (bps) from the May print, the lowest we’ve seen since March 2021. The high read on this metric was +7.0% in June of last year. Core PCE year over year — stripping out volatile food and energy costs — came in at +4.1%, a mere 10 bps below expectations, but still the lowest print since September 2021 and down half a point from the unrevised +4.6% posted the previous month.
Nominal Personal Income reached +0.3% for June, down 10 bps from estimates and 20 bps from the upwardly revised May number. Nominal Personal Spending for June was in line with expectations at +0.5%, up 30 bps from an upwardly revised +0.2% previously. Real Spending was up +0.4% — above the revised +0.1% a month earlier but well below January 2023’s +1.3%. And the Employment Cost Index for Q2 was also a tad below projections to +1.0%, and down -20 bps from the unrevised May print. February of this year brought us +1.4%, the highest of the cycle. All of these figures depict a continually cooling economy overall.
The biggest of the integrated oil & gas “supermajors,” ExxonMobil (XOM - Free Report) , reported mixed Q2 numbers this morning, missing on the bottom line by 6 cents per share to $1.94 (and well off the year-ago pace of $4.14 per share), while outperforming estimates on the top line to $82.91 billion by +5.16%. Compared to 2022, when Q2 revenues came in at a jaw-dropping $115.68 billion, we see the results of the pullback in energy costs big time with these numbers. For more on XOM’s earnings, click here.
Competing supermajor Chevron (CVX - Free Report) also released mixed results for its Q2 report ahead of today’s bell, but in reverse from Exxon’s: earnings of $3.08 per share beat the Zacks consensus by +4.4% (though well off last year’s Q2 earnings of $5.82 per share), while revenues of $48.9 billion was beneath expectations by -4.9%. Both Chevron and Exxon shares are down marginally on the news, adding to their year-to-date losses of -11.1% and -4.4%, respectively. For more on CVX’s earnings, click here.
Procter & Gamble (PG - Free Report) beat on both top and bottom lines for its fiscal Q4 quarter this Friday, with earnings of $1.37 per share outpacing the Zacks consensus by 5 cents (and easily above the $1.21 per share in the year-ago quarter) for its fourth-straight quarterly earnings beat, on sales of $20.55 billion, bettering expectations by +2.66%. Shares are up +1.3% in today’s pre-market trading, adding to the marginal +0.4% P&G has earned year to date. For more on PG’s earnings, click here.
From the same household product segment, Colgate-Palmolive (CL - Free Report) managed only its second earnings beat in the past four quarters, with earnings of 77 cents per share presenting a 2-cent beat. Its top line also came in ahead of expectations, $4.82 billion, which surpassed the Zacks consensus by +3.23% and bettered the $4.48 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. Shares are trading down -1.6% on the news at this hour, adding to its -2% loss year to date. For more on CL’s earnings, click here.
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